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Analysis Brighter: In waiting mode

Detta är en betald analys på uppdrag av Brighter utförd av analysföretaget Carlsquare på uppdrag av Analysguiden.

The report for the third quarter of 2019 did not surprise us. The company continue on the road to a commercial breakthrough.  Our new target price in our base scenario is 19.7 SEK per share.  Actiste® is Brighter's all-in-one subscription service aimed at facilitating self-care for diabetes patients. The initial focus for the company is to market the service in Sweden, South East Asia and in the Middle East. The most progress has been made in the United Arab Emirates. 

Now with the CE - marking done the focus is naturally shifting towards the actual sales process and eventual orders. We had before the report not anticipated any surprises regarding orders or any other issues. At present it is just traditional work to get the sales done in the coming quarters. In the long-term scenario, this delay does not mean that much. However, costs arise and constantly requires new financing. On a positive note there seems to be interested parties to step in with new financing to cover for the costs until revenue is pouring in, in spite of the delays that has occurred. However, on the negative side there is a dilution effect, which has so far in turn been compensated by the complicated financing setups.

It is also obvious that the competitors have not been idle during this time but have further developed their products. This fact is putting pressure on the company. It is of the outmost importance that indications of the sales process is proceeding as communicated. In our last analysis we removed this risk adjustment related to the uncertainty surrounding the CE- certification process. The removal of the risk adjustment did, as expected have a significant effect on the motivated value on the share in our different scenarios. In our updated base scenario, we see a value of 19,7 (19,2) SEK per share. In the more optimistic bull-scenario, the value per share is calculated at 27,0 (26,5) SEK and in the more defensive bear-scenario at 14,0 (13,5) SEK.

Författare Mats Hyttinge