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2021-04-22

Analysis Expres2ion: First human data reassuring

Detta är en betald analys på uppdrag av ExpreS2ion Biotech Holding utförd av Analysguiden

First human data expected to be satisfactory
Prospects for the COVID-19 vaccine candidate ABNCoV-2 has improved markedly following the DKK 1.1 billion new share issue by Bavarian Nordic in March. The first clinical study, COUGH-1, has performed an interim analysis, as expected, pointing to a good safety profile in the first 18 health volunteers treated with the vaccine. Final data from all 42 patients, including immunological in vitro responses, is now expected in late July. Meanwhile Bavarian Nordic has announced its intention to start a second phase 1/2 study of ABNCoV-2 later in Q2, including some 200 patients previously treated with another vaccine or displaying antibodies to the virus. The vaccine will be investigated as a booster to currently approved vaccines, a position expected to be of importance in the continued fight against the virus. Further funding is required before the project can enter final phase 3 later this year.

Need for new vaccines to be reflected in prices
We are raising our assumptions for the ABNCoV-2 vaccine candidate both on expected pricing as well as chances of successfully reaching the market. Vaccine development is considered the least hazardous area of therapeutical development, which together with the ample documentation of the vaccine target, lead us to raise our probability of approval to 41 percent. Our previous pricing of 10 EUR per dose is raised to 15 EUR per dose, at a slight premium to the expected pricing of the Novavax vaccine. We also raise our estimate for total number of doses to 700 million, still well below the projected number of Novavax doses, reflecting a belief that ABNCoV-2 may be positioned as a booster vaccine on top of first-and second-line products.

Fair value raised to SEK 49 / share
In our brushed-up approach we have substantially raised our valuation of Expres2ion’s 34 percent holding in AdaptVac. We value AdaptVac at SEK 2.0bn, based on the future revenue slew from Bavarian Nordic. The holding in AdaptVac corresponds to SEK 21 per share in Expres2ion. Our sum of the parts amounts to SEK 49 / share, double that of our latest report. A more bullish view on the share price would assume that we raise our forecast of distributed doses to a +1 billion, which we find it too early to include as a base case.

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