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2021-08-23

Analysis Expres2ion: Funding still pending

Detta är en betald analys på uppdrag av ExpreS2ion Biotech Holding utförd av Analysguiden

First efficacy data for ABNCoV2
The first clinical efficacy data for the vaccine candidate ABNCoV2 were recently presented from COUGH-1, a Phase 1/2 study in healthy volunteers initiated earlier this year. ABNCoV2 showed a strong in vitro neutralizing effect on the SARS-CoV2 virus in comparison to blood of convalescent patients recently recovered from the infection. The consortium behind the product, PREVENT-nCoV, stated in its press release that ABNCoV2 showed up to 12 times higher titers of neutralizing antibodies compared to the convalescent patients not receiving ABNCoV2. This effect is markedly stronger than what has been seen in similar studies with the approved mRNA vaccines.

Bavarian Nordic seeks funding of phase 3 trial
In July last year, commercial rights to ABNCoV2 were sold to the Danish vaccine company Bavarian Nordic. Bavarian Nordic does not intend to finance phase 3 on its own and has since sought funds in the range of DKK 2-3 billion. Among other parties, the company is in discussion with the Danish Government about reaching a tax-funded solution to the Phase 3 investment. No outcome has yet been presented from the negotiations, which may be contingent on more phase 2 data.

Proprietary portfolio moving along
Meanwhile ExpreS2ion is advancing its proprietary portfolio of vaccines. In May a lead candidate in the breast cancer vaccine program (ES2B-C001) was selected for studies in animal models. In July a phase 1b malaria prevention study was started. These projects may overtime become important value drivers for the company.

Fair value at SEK 55 / share (49)
Although initial clinical data look promising, competition from other vaccine candidates is stiffening with more than 100 projects in clinical development, according to the WHO. We maintain our forecast of a 41 percent likelihood of Bavarian Nordic succeeding in reaching the market with ABNCoV2, provided that phase 3 funding can be found. Our sales forecast is 650 million doses sold during the period 2023-27. In this report we raise our assumption of price per dose to EUR 20 from previous EUR 15, which has a positive impact on ExpreS2ion’s fair value by SEK 6 to SEK 55, still leaving some upside in the near-term news flow.

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