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2021-01-27

Analysis Expres2ion: "Getting close to patients"

Detta är en betald analys på uppdrag av ExpreS2ion Biotech Holding utförd av Analysguiden
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News flow continues to progress

ExpreS2 ion Biotechnologies has started off the year with important news on the strengthening of its organisation with key personnel and the submission of a clinical trial application by the consortium behind the ABNCoV2 vaccine candidate to the Dutch authorities. Strong preclinical data on the immunogenicity of the COVID-19 vaccine was presented in the online journal Nature Communication on January 12. We expect this stride of news to continue in February and March with announcement of the first human dosing of ABNCoV2 in the COUGH-1 trial as well as a possible preliminary safety readout late Q1 or early Q2. The crowning of the news flow would be the announcing by Bavarian Nordic of full financing of late-stage development, still lacking at this moment.

Transformational deal with AdaptVac

The option to acquire full rights to AdaptVac's therapeutical breast cancer vaccine AV001 expires on February 26. We expect ExpreS2 ion Biotechnologies to exercise its option taking the company further in its transformation from service providing platform to a vaccine drug development company. Recent appointments stresses management’s determination to follow the rationale set out in October’s new share issue of SEK 131m. AV001, which the Company has announced will have the project code ES2B-C001 in future, is in preclinical development and has the potential to initiate first trial in humans in late 2022 after having finalized testing in animals and the development of a solid manufacturing process.

SOTP maintained at SEK 24 / share

In a long-term perspective we find progress for ES2B-C001 to be of at least equal importance to ExpreS 2 ion shareholders as ABNCoV2 and its race to be included in the worldwide vaccination campaign to the coronavirus. However, in the short term share price performance should continue to depend on the latter, especially in the event of Bavarian Nordic announcing a financing solution for the final stages of development. At this stage we assign ABNCoV2 a 26 percent chance of approval under an accelerated development pathway. Our sum-of-the-parts valuation of the company's parts remains at SEK 24 with the coronavirus vaccine making up SEK 8.2 / share.

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