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2019-11-29

Analysis ExpreS2ion: Potential at reduced risk

Detta är en betald analys på uppdrag av ExpreS2ion Biotech Holding AB utförd av analysföretaget Carlsquare på uppdrag av Analysguiden.
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ExpreS2ion provides a platform for the next generation of vaccin­es, including therapeutic vaccines. With an improved offer­ing, license revenues with high margins may increase. The value in the jointly owned AdaptVac does not seem to be fully discounted.

ExpreS2ion Biotech Holding AB has developed a patented expression platform based on S2 cells with a proven ability to produce complex proteins suitable for vaccine and immuno­therapy with clinical potential. The company generates revenue through consult­ancy fees, out-licensing of the right to use the platform as well as the sale of platform related products. Among the reference clients are well-known pharma companies such as Novartis and Roche, a demonstration of the platform's capacities. The company has further developed its offering, which has generated great interest among existing and potential clients. We believe that an improved offering will contribute to good growth in the coming years with a healthy margin.

As part of the business model, customers must enter into commercial agreements if they wish to proceed to clinical development with a protein developed and produced using the company's platform. This means that the company takes part of the potential upside that traditional drug development companies are often associated with, but without having to finance the development. Today, the company has several known "partner projects" of which a malaria-project with the Jenner Institute is the furthest progressed. A phase I/IIa study has been comp­leted that demonstrated activation of the immune system and moderate but significant effect. Own projects are also run through the jointly owned company AdaptVac. The most advanced project, AV001, has shown clear tumour inhibitory effect in preclinical studies. AV001 is a therapeutic cancer vaccine for the treatment of HER2-positive breast cancer, a market that is expected to reach around USD 10 billion. With continued progress toward clinical trials, the project should become attractive to larger potential partners and we estimate that a licensing deal could amount to several hundreds of MUSD in total value. However, additional funding will be needed to complete the preclinical development.

By adding the value of the platform to the estimated values ​​in the own projects (in AdaptVac) as well as known partner projects, a fair value in the base scenario is calculated to SEK 8.2 for the coming 6-12 months.

Författare Markus Augustsson

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