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Analysis Immunicum: Targeting new trial start

Detta är en betald analys på uppdrag av Immunicum AB utförd av analysföretaget Jarl Securities på uppdrag av Analysguiden.

After a capital raise, clinical development has continued and the critical kidney cancer trial is now fully recruited. Preparations are ongoing for a new trial investigating a combination therapy with the leading immuno-oncology treatments, checkpoint inhibitors. 

Having raised SEK 168m after costs in a rights issue in December, and subsequently moving to the Nasdaq OMX main list, Immunicum has ticked off two main boxes on the ”check list” to strengthen finances and increase potential investor base. The raise further enables a high pace of clincal development. In January, the Phase II study in kidney cancer was reported as fully recruited, in line with earlier communicated plans. Immunicum aims to complete the trial and report top-line results in Q3 2019. The outcome will have a very material impact on the value of the main project ilixadencel, as the treatment is for the first time compared to standard of care treatment sunitinib.

The share price has been subdued since the issue, still lingering below the subscription price, despite some recovery lately. A likely explanation is a large part of the issue ending up with underwriting guarantors. A somewhat slow news flow and mediocre sector performance may also have contributed. During 2018 company focus is largely on the initation of a multi-indication clinical trial to investigate ilixadencel in combination with checkpoint inhibitors in comparison to checkpoint inhibitor treatment alone. This might provide increasing and potentially value driving news flow in the second half of the year.

We view Immunicum as a share with strong potential as well as extensive risk. 2019 will likely be the watershed year as results from MERECA as well as the multi-indication trial are expected. We see a probable need for additional financing in mid-2019.

Författare Niklas Elmhammer

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