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2016-05-17

Iceland Leading Indicator - Debit card turnover and fish catches drive April rise

Analytica
Press release

Iceland Leading Indicator - Debit card turnover and fish catches drive April
rise

REYKJAVIK, Iceland, 2016-05-17 10:00 CEST (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) --
The Analytica Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for Iceland continued its rise
in April, now by 0.1 percent on the month, following a revised 0.1 percent rise
in March. The value of the indicator in upswing has not been higher since 2006.
The CLI indicates growth above long term trend.

The April rise can be attributed to a rise in debit card turnover, growth in
imports, increased fish catches and improved consumer confidence. The main risk
factors to the still positive outlook continue to include some external factors
mainly in relation to the geopolitical situation and growth prospects for
emerging markets and China.

Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity
relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland.
The calculation of Analytica’s CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD.

There are six components of Analytica’s CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation
adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI
World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of
Consumer Confidence. For April five of the six underlying components are
strengthening year on year. However, four of the six components rise on the
previous month.

Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The
value for April rises by 0.1 percent on the month to 102.8. This value serves
as an indicator to economic activity six months into the future, i.e. October
2016. A value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long term trend.

Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2015-2016

Change in % Indication
Index on month YOY for month
2015
April 100.2 -0.1 % 0.0 % Oct.
May 100.2 0.1 % 0.2 % Nov.
June 100.4 0.2 % 0.6 % Dec.
July 100.8 0.3 % 1.3 % Jan. 2016
August 101.1 0.4 % 1.9 % Feb.
September 101.4 0.2 % 2.2 % March
October 101.6 0.2 % 2.3 % April
November 101.8 0.3 % 2.4 % May
December 102.1 0.3 % 2.4 % June
2016
January 102.4 0.3 % 2.4 % July
February 102.6 0.2 % 2.4 % August
March 102.7 0.1 % 2.5 % Sept.
April 102.8 0.1 % 2.6 % Oct.

The May Composite Leading Indicator is scheduled for release on June 20, 2016.

Further information is provided by Analytica’s CEO, Mr. Yngvi Hardarson
Tel. +354 5278890 - email: yngvi@analytica.is

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