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2016-12-16

Iceland Leading Indicator - Tourism a powerful driver

ism a powerful driver

REYKJAVIK, Iceland, 2016-12-16 09:00 CET (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) --
The Analytica Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) rose in November for the
fourth consecutive month. However, there were some revisions for previous
months. The CLI still indicates growth above long term trend.

Four of the six components rise on the previous month with the largest impact
being due to tourist arrivals. All components are adjusted for seasonality and
long term trend. An upward revision is made in the long term trend estimate of
most CLI components. The main risk factors continue to include some external
factors mainly in relation to the geopolitical situation.

Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity
relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland.
The calculation of Analytica’s CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD.

There are six components of Analytica’s CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation
adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI
World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of
Consumer Confidence. For November four of the six underlying components are
strengthening year on year. Also, four of the six components rise on the
previous month.

Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The
value for November rises by 0.4 per cent to 102.3. This value serves as an
indicator to economic activity six months into the future, i.e. May 2017. A
value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long term trend.

Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2015-2016

Change in % Indication
----------------
Index on month YOY for month
2015
November 101.2 0.2% 2.2% May 2016
December 101.5 0.2% 2.2% June
2016
January 101.7 0.2% 2.2% July
February 101.7 0.1% 2.1% August
March 101.7 -0.1% 2.0% Sept.
April 101.5 -0.2% 1.9% Oct.
May 101.4 -0.1% 1.7% Nov.
June 101.2 -0.1% 1.4% Dec.
July 101.2 0.0% 1.0% Jan. 2017
August 101.3 0.1% 0.7% Feb.
September 101.6 0.2% 0.8% March
October 101.9 0.3% 1.0% April
November 102.3 0.4% 2.2% May

The December Composite Leading Indicator is scheduled for release on January
17, 2017.

Further information is provided by Analytica’s CEO, Mr. Yngvi Hardarson
Tel. +354 5278890 - email: yngvi@analytica.is

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