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Verisk Analytics Inc.: AER Study Reveals Arctic Influence on Midlatitude Weather Greater Than Previously Thought

Lexington, Mass., May 9, 2016 - A new study from Atmospheric and Environmental
Research (AER) published inGeophysical Research Letters
(a journal of the American Geophysical Union) shows that the influence of
Arctic change on recent trends in midlatitude winter (December-February)
weather has likely been greater than the influence of the El Niño-Southern
Oscillation (ENSO). This research holds promise for improving seasonal
forecasting. AER is a Verisk Analytics (Nasdaq:VRSK) business.

Over the past three decades, the Arctic has experienced the greatest climate
changes of anywhere on Earth, including rapidly rising temperatures, melting
sea ice, and increasing autumn snow cover. The extent to which these rapid
changes in the Arctic are influencing midlatitude weather has become a hotly
debated topic in the climate community.

The new analysis, funded by the National Science Foundation under grants
PLR-1504361 and AGS-1303647, compares recently observed trends in weather
patterns to atmospheric variability associated with both Arctic change and
ENSO. The study demonstrates that recently observed weather pattern trends
are strikingly similar to the variability associated with Arctic change
rather than the variability associated with ENSO.

This work also demonstrates that temperature variability has become more
extreme in Northern Hemisphere population centers over the past three
decades, a time period that has seen the Arctic warm faster than any other
region on Earth.

While some scientists have speculated that this faster warming, or "Arctic
amplification," may lead to more muted temperature swings (arguing that a
warming Arctic will temper cold-air outbreaks), the opposite has occurred,
and temperature swings have become more amplified as the Arctic has warmed.
These amplified temperature swings are popularly referred to as "weather

"We've found the likely explanation to cold winters in a warming world, and
it's due to Arctic change," said Dr. Judah Cohen, director of seasonal
forecasting at AER and lead author of the study. "The publication of the
paper is especially timely. We just finished a winter that was characterized
by both a record-breaking ENSO and a record-breaking polar vortex-and the
polar vortex dominated."

The study can be viewedhere.

About Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER)

Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) provides science-based solutions
to global environmental challenges. AER's internationally renowned scientists
and software engineers collaborate to transform state-of-the-art predictive
science and analytical tools into practical systems that address both
civilian government and defense needs for geophysical understanding, computer
simulation, and forecasting. AER customers include government agencies and
national laboratories, aerospace and defense contractors, and academia. Areas
of expertise comprise atmospheric and environmental science, remote sensing,
meteorology, oceanography, space science, climate change, and software
engineering. A Verisk Analytics (Nasdaq:VRSK) business, AER was established
in 1977 and is headquartered in Lexington, Mass.


Giuseppe Barone/Colleen Finley
MWW Group (for AER)


This announcement is distributed by NASDAQ OMX Corporate Solutions on behalf of NASDAQ OMX Corporate Solutions clients.
The issuer of this announcement warrants that they are solely responsible for the content, accuracy and originality of the information contained therein.
Source: Verisk Analytics Inc. via Globenewswire


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